World Population Prospects - Population Division

Methodology of the United Nations population estimates and projections: English, Spanish / Español
Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: Methodology of the United Nations population estimates and projections.

Methodological updates
Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: Methodological updates.

Release note (rev.1) – 28 Aug. 2019 update
Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: Release note (rev.1).

Press Release: English, French / Français, Chinese / 中文, Spanish / Español
Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: Press Release.

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2017 Revision

Key Findings and Advance Tables
Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables. ESA/P/WP/248.

Volume I: Comprehensive Tables
Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, Volume I: Comprehensive Tables. ST/ESA/SER.A/399.

Volume II: Demographic Profiles
Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, Volume II: Demographic Profiles. ST/ESA/SER.A/400.

Population Facts 2017/3: The end of high fertility is near
Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). Population Facts No. 2017/3, October 2017: The end of high fertility is near.

Population Facts 2017/4: The impact of population momentum on future population growth
Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). Population Facts No. 2017/4, October 2017: The impact of population momentum on future population growth.

Data Booklet
Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, Data Booklet. ST/ESA/SER.A/401.

World Population 2017 Wallchart
Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, World Population 2017 Wallchart. ST/ESA/SER.A/398.

Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections
Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections, Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP.250. New York: United Nations.

Technical Paper No. 6
Citation: Gu, D., Pelletier, F. and Sawyer, C. (2017). Projecting Age-sex-specific Mortality: A Comparison of the Modified Lee-Carter and Pattern of Mortality Decline Methods, UN Population Division, Technical Paper No. 6. New York: United Nations.

Technical Paper No. 7
Citation: Castanheira, H., Pelletier, F. and Ribeiro, I. (2017). A Sensitivity Analysis of the Bayesian Framework for the Projections of Life Expectancy at Birth, UN Population Division, Technical Paper No. 7. New York: United Nations.

2015 Revision

Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections
Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections. ESA/P/WP.242.

Key Findings and Advance Tables (Updated 29 July 2015 6:00 PM EDT: see ERRATUM inside the document)
Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables. ESA/P/WP.241.

World Population 2015 Wallchart
Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, World Population 2015 Wallchart. ST/ESA/SER.A/378.

Volume I: Comprehensive Tables
Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Volume I: Comprehensive Tables. ST/ESA/SER.A/379.

Volume II: Demographic Profiles
Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Volume II: Demographic Profiles. ST/ESA/SER.A/380.

Data Booklet
Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Data Booklet. ST/ESA/SER.A/377.

2012 Revision

Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections
Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014). World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections. ESA/P/WP.235.

Highlights and Advance Tables
Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013). World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Highlights and Advance Tables. ESA/P/WP.228.

Volume I: Comprehensive Tables
Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013). World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Volume I: Comprehensive Tables. ST/ESA/SER.A/336.

Volume II: Demographic Profiles
Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013). World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Volume II: Demographic Profiles. ST/ESA/SER.A/345.

Raftery, A.E., N. Li, H. Ševčíková, P. Gerland, and G.K. Heilig (2012). "Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 109 (35):13915-13921. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1211452109 [open access]

Raftery, A.E., N. Li, H. Ševčíková, P. Gerland, and G.K. Heilig (2012). "Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries. - Supporting information" Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 109 (35):13915-13921. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1211452109 [open access]

Raftery, A. E., L. Alkema, and P. Gerland (2014). "Bayesian Population Projections for the United Nations." in: Statistical Science, 29(1), 58-68. doi: 10.1214/13-STS419 [open access]

Liu, P., and A.E. Raftery (2020). "Accounting for uncertainty about past values in probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for most countries." In The annals of applied statistics, vol. 14, No. 2, pp. 685. doi: 10.1214/19-aoas1294 [open access]

Liu, P., and others (2023). "Probabilistic Estimation and Projection of the Annual Total Fertility Rate Accounting for Past Uncertainty: A Major Update of the bayesTFR R Package." Journal of Statistical Software, vol. 106, No. 8, pp. 1 - 36. doi: 10.18637/jss.v106.i08 [open access]

Fosdick, B., and A. Raftery (2014). "Regional probabilistic fertility forecasting by modeling between-country correlations." in: Demographic Research, 30(35), 1011-1034. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2014.30.35 [open access]

Alkema L., A.E. Raftery, P. Gerland, S.J. Clark, F. Pelletier, T. Buettner, and G.K. Heilig (2011). "Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries." in: Demography, 48:815-839. doi: 10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5 [open access]

Alkema L., A.E. Raftery, P. Gerland, S.J. Clark, F. Pelletier, T. Buettner, and G.K. Heilig (2011). Online Resource 1 for "Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries." in: Demography, 48:815-839. doi: 10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5 [open access]

Chao, F., and others (2023). Estimating age-specific fertility rate in the World Population Prospects: a Bayesian modelling approach. UN Population Division, Technical Paper, No. UN DESA/POP/2023/TP/No.6, New York, United Nations.

Chao, F., and others (2019). "Systematic assessment of the sex ratio at birth for all countries and estimation of national imbalances and regional reference levels." In Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 116, No. 19, pp. 9303-9311 [open access]

Chao, F., and others (2021). "Global estimation and scenario-based projections of sex ratio at birth and missing female births using a Bayesian hierarchical time series mixture model. In The Annals of Applied Statistics, vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 1499-1528 [open access]

Raftery, A. E., J.L. Chunn, P. Gerland, and H. Ševčíková, H. (2013). "Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries". in: Demography, 50(3), 777-801. doi: 10.1007/s13524-012-0193-x [open access]

Raftery, A.E., N. Lalic, and P. Gerland (2014). "Joint probabilistic projection of female and male life expectancy". in: Demographic Research, 30(27), 795-822. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2014.30.27 [open access]

Godwin, J., and A.E. Raftery (2017). "Bayesian projection of life expectancy accounting for the HIV/AIDS epidemic". in: Demographic Research, vol. 37, No., pp. 1549-1610. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2017.37.48 [open access]

Ševčíková, H., and others (2016). "Age-Specific Mortality and Fertility Rates for Probabilistic Population Projections". In Dynamic Demographic Analysis, edited by Robert Schoen, pp. 285-310. Cham: Springer International Publishing. [open access]

Azose, J.J., and A.E. Raftery (2015). Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration. Demography, vol. 52, No. 5, pp. 1627-1650. doi: 10.1007/s13524-015-0415-0. [open access]

Azose, J.J., and others (2016). Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, vol. 113, No. 23, pp. 6460-5. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1606119113. [open access]

Raymer, J., and others (2023). Modelling the age and sex profiles of net international migration. UN Population Division, Technical Paper, No. UN DESA/POP/2023/TP/No.7, New York, United Nations.

Ševčíková, H., and A.E. Raftery (2016). "bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections". in: Journal of statistical software, vol. 75, No., pp. doi: 10.18637/jss.v075.i05. [open access]

Ševčíková, H., and others (2011). "bayesTFR: An R package for probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate". in: Journal of Statistical Software, vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 1-29. doi: 10.18637/jss.v043.i01. [open access]

White Paper: Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries for the 2010 World Population Prospects. Adrian E. Raftery, Leontine Alkema, Patrick Gerland, Samuel J. Clark, Francois Pelletier, Thomas Buettner, Gerhard Heilig, Nan Li, Hana Ševčíková. (United Nations population Division, Expert Group Meeting on Recent and Future Trends in Fertility, New York, 2-4 December 2009)

A stochastic version of the United Nations World Population Prospects: methodological improvements by using Bayesian fertility and mortality projections. Gerhard K. Heilig, Thomas Buettner, Nan Li, Patrick Gerland, Francois Pelletier, Leontine Alkema, Jennifer Chunn, Hana Ševčíková, Adrian E. Raftery. Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections, Lisbon, 23 April 2010.

Future population trends found to be highly uncertain in Least Developed Countries. Gerhard K. Heilig, Thomas Buettner, Nan Li, Patrick Gerland, Leontine Alkema, Jennifer Chunn, Adrian E. Raftery. Unpublished manuscript. 16 March 2010.

Li, N., and others (2013). "Extending the Lee-carter method to model the rotation of age patterns of mortality decline for long-term projections". in: Demography, vol. 50, No. 6, pp. 2037-51. doi: 10.1007/s13524-013-0232-2 [open access]

Andreev, K., and others (2013). "Patterns of Mortality Improvement by Level of Life Expectancy at Birth". in: Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, New Orleans, LA.

Modifying the Lee-Carter method to project mortality changes up to 2100. Li, N. and P. Gerland. Population Association of America 2011 Annual Meeting - Washington, DC. Session 125: Formal Demography I: Mathematical Models and Methods.

Houle, B., and others (2022). Application of a Singular Value Decomposition-Based Factorization and Parsimonious-Component Model of Mortality to HIV Epidemics in Africa. in: Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Atlanta, GA.

Johnson, P., and others (2022). Method protocol for the evaluation of census population data by age and sex. UN Population Division, Technical Paper, No. UN DESA/POP/2022/TP/No.5, New York, United Nations.

Wheldon, M.C., and others (2013). "Reconstructing Past Populations With Uncertainty From Fragmentary Data." In the Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 108, No. 501, pp. 96-110. doi: 10.1080/01621459.2012.737729.

Wheldon, M.C., and others (2015). "Bayesian reconstruction of two-sex populations by age: estimating sex ratios at birth and sex ratios of mortality." In the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), vol. 178, No. 4, pp. 977-1007. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12104.

Wheldon, M.C., and others (2016). "Bayesian population reconstruction of female populations for less developed and more developed countries." In Population studies, vol. 70, No. 1, pp. 21-37. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1139164.

Disclaimer: This web site contains data tables, figures, maps, analyses and technical notes from the current revision of the World Population Prospects. These documents do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.