United Nations

The world’s population is projected to reach 8 billion on 15 November 2022 from an estimated 2.5 billion people in 1950. It took around 37 years since 1950 for human numbers to double, surpassing 5 billion inhabitants in 1987. Thereafter, it is estimated that more than 70 years will be required for the global population to double again. The latest projections by the United Nations suggest that the global population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100. More than half of the projected increase in the global population between 2022 and 2050 is expected to be concentrated in just eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania. »

Changing levels of fertility, mortality and migration influence the age composition of populations. Globally and for individual countries or areas, the share of population above the age of 65 years is projected to increase, while the share below age 25 is projected to decrease between 2021 and the end of the century. Already, most populations face decreasing numbers of working-age persons (from 25 to 64 years) relative to the number of older persons (65 years and over), and within a few decades this trend is expected for all countries and areas of the world. Globally, the potential support ratio, which equals the number of persons aged 25 to 64 years divided by the number aged 65 or over, is projected to decline from 5.1 in 2021 to 3.0 in 2050 and to reach 2.0 at the end of the century. »

The global population is still growing, albeit at a reduced rate. Some countries and regions continue to experience further population growth, while others have witnessed a stabilization or begun to decrease in population size. The world’s two most populous regions in 2021 were Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, with 2.3 billion people, representing 30 per cent of the global population, and Central and Southern Asia, with 2.1 billion (26 per cent). In the next three decades, the regions of the world will experience different growth rates of their populations. Consequently, the regional distribution of the population in 2050 will significantly differ from that of today. Central and Southern Asia is expected to become the most populous region in the world by 2037 as the population of Eastern and South-Eastern Asia could start declining by the mid-2030s. Between 2022 and 2050, the population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to almost double, surpassing 2 billion inhabitants by the late 2040s, and is projected to account for more than half of the growth of the world’s population between 2022 and 2050. Europe and Northern America is projected to reach its peak population size and to begin experiencing population decline in the late 2030s. »