World Population Prospects - Population Division

World Population Prospects 2022

Data Sources

A description of the empirical data used and the methods applied in revising past estimates of population and components of demographic change (fertility, child, adult and overall mortality, international migration) is available here for each country or area for the period 1950 to 2021. For the countries with less than 1,000 inhabitants in 2021, only the data sources for total population are made available.

Select below a country or area to see the respective information, or download the whole set of metadata in PDF format for all countries or areas or a tabular version for each demographic component under Documentation.

Kenya

Population: Total population and distribution by age and sex estimated to be consistent with the population by age and sex of the (a) 1948, 1962, 1969, 1979, 1989, 1999, 2009, 2019 censuses; (b) adjusted for under/over count; (c) adjusted for age heaping; (d) adjusted for under enumeration of children under age 15; (e) official estimates through 2018; and with estimates of the subsequent trends in fertility, mortality and international migration. In addition, the 1998, 2003, 2008-2009, 2014 DHS and 2020 MIS survey estimates have been considered.

Fertility: Total fertility rate and age pattern of fertility based on: (a) registered births classified by age of mother and the underlying female population by age through 2020; (b) birth-histories data from the 1977-1978 WFS and 1989, 1993, 1998, 2003, 2008-2009, 2014 DHS and 2015, 2020 MIS and 2015 PMA-R3 and 2016 PMA-R5 and 2017 PMA-R6 and 2018 PMA-R7; (c) births in the household in the preceding 12 (or 24) months classified by age of mother from the 1962, 1969, 2009, 2019 censuses and 1984 CPS; (d) adjusted fertility using synthetic relational Gompertz model with data on children ever born and births in the preceding 12 (or 24/36) months, both classified by age of mother, from the 1989, 1999 censuses; (e) indirect estimates obtained from the application of the reverse survival method to the 1962, 1969, 1979, 1989, 1999, 2009, 2019 censuses and 2000 MICS and 2015, 2020 MIS; (f) indirect estimates obtained from stable population assumption; (g) cohort-completed fertility backdated by the mean age of childbearing from the 1969, 1989, 1999, 2009 censuses and 1989, 1993, 1998, 2003, 2008-2009, 2014 DHS and 2000 MICS and 2015, 2020 MIS. In addition, the (a) official estimates of age-specific fertility rates through 2018; (b) birth-histories data from the 2014 PMA-R1 and 2019 PMA-Phase 1; (c) births in the household in the preceding 12 (or 24) months classified by age of mother from the 1989, 1999 censuses; (d) indirect estimates obtained from the application of the reverse survival method to the 1955-2009 Education Stats; (e) cohort-completed fertility backdated by the mean age of childbearing from the 1979 Census have been considered.

Child Mortality: Under-five mortality based on: (a) registered infant and child deaths through 2021; (b) direct estimates from births and deaths under-five calculated from full birth histories data from the 1977-1978 WFS and 1989, 1993, 1998, 2003, 2008-2009, 2014 DHS; (c) indirect estimates from data on children ever born and surviving from the 1969, 1979, 1989, 1999 censuses and 1977, 1983 NDS and 2000 MICS and 2015 MIS; (d) International estimates used up to 2021. In addition, the recent household deaths from the 2009, 2019 censuses have been considered.

Overall Mortality: Life expectancy at birth and age pattern of mortality based on: (a) The demographic impact of AIDS has been factored into the mortality estimates; (b) estimates using HIV/AIDS model life tables and estimates of under-five mortality (5q0) and adult mortality (45q15) with UNAIDS estimates of adult HIV prevalence, and ART coverage for children and adults.

Adult and Old Age Mortality: Estimates derived from: (a) recent household deaths data by age and sex from the 2007 AIS and 2019 Census; (b) recent household deaths adjusted at adult ages for underregistration using death distribution methods; (c) siblings deaths from the 2003, 2008-2009, 2014 DHS; (d) maternal orphanhood from the 1977, 1983 NDS and 1979, 1989, 1999 censuses and 1993, 1998 DHS and 2000 MICS; (e) paternal orphanhood from the 1977, 1983 NDS and 1979, 1989, 1999 censuses and 1993, 1998 DHS and 2000 MICS; (f) estimates of under-five, adult and old age mortality. In addition, the (a) recent household deaths data by age and sex from the 2009 Census; (b) siblings deaths from the 1998 DHS; (c) maternal orphanhood from the 1969 Census and 1973 DBS and 2003 DHS; (d) paternal orphanhood from the 1969 Census and 1973 DBS and 2003 DHS have been considered.

Migration: International migration based on: (a) information on foreign-born populations from censuses and registers from major countries of destination; (b) estimates derived as the differences between overall population growth and natural increase; (c) UNHCR statistics on the number of refugees in the main countries of asylum.

Disclaimer: This web site contains data tables, figures, maps, analyses and technical notes from the current revision of the World Population Prospects. These documents do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.