• 2019 Revision
• 2017 Revision
• 2015 Revision
• 2012 Revision
• Journals and Papers

Highlights Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights. ST/ESA/SER.A/423.

Ten Key Findings Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: Ten Key Findings.

Volume I: Comprehensive Tables Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: Volume I: Comprehensive Tables.

Volume II: Demographic Profiles (file size: 146 MB) Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: Volume II: Demographic Profiles.

Population Facts 2019/6: How certain are the United Nations global population projections? Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). Population Facts No. 2019/6, December 2019: How certain are the United Nations global population projections?.

Population Facts 2019/5: Potential impact of later childbearing on future population Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). Population Facts No. 2019/5, December 2019: Potential impact of later childbearing on future population.

Data Booklet Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: Data Booket. ST/ESA/SER.A/424.

Wallchart Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: Wallchart.

Methodology of the United Nations population estimates and projections: English, Spanish / Español Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: Methodology of the United Nations population estimates and projections.

Methodological updates Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: Methodological updates.

Release note (rev.1) – 28 Aug. 2019 update Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: Release note (rev.1).

Press Release: English, French / Français, Chinese / 中文, Spanish / Español Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: Press Release.

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Key Findings and Advance Tables Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables. ESA/P/WP/248.

Volume I: Comprehensive Tables Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, Volume I: Comprehensive Tables. ST/ESA/SER.A/399.

Volume II: Demographic Profiles Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, Volume II: Demographic Profiles. ST/ESA/SER.A/400.

Population Facts 2017/3: The end of high fertility is near Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). Population Facts No. 2017/3, October 2017: The end of high fertility is near.

Population Facts 2017/4: The impact of population momentum on future population growth Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). Population Facts No. 2017/4, October 2017: The impact of population momentum on future population growth.

Data Booklet Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, Data Booklet. ST/ESA/SER.A/401.

World Population 2017 Wallchart Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, World Population 2017 Wallchart. ST/ESA/SER.A/398.

Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections, Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP.250. New York: United Nations.

Technical Paper No. 6 Citation: Gu, D., Pelletier, F. and Sawyer, C. (2017). Projecting Age-sex-specific Mortality: A Comparison of the Modified Lee-Carter and Pattern of Mortality Decline Methods, UN Population Division, Technical Paper No. 6. New York: United Nations.

Technical Paper No. 7 Citation: Castanheira, H., Pelletier, F. and Ribeiro, I. (2017). A Sensitivity Analysis of the Bayesian Framework for the Projections of Life Expectancy at Birth, UN Population Division, Technical Paper No. 7. New York: United Nations.

Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections. ESA/P/WP.242.

Key Findings and Advance Tables (Updated 29 July 2015 6:00 PM EDT: see ERRATUM inside the document) Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables. ESA/P/WP.241.

World Population 2015 Wallchart Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, World Population 2015 Wallchart. ST/ESA/SER.A/378.

Volume I: Comprehensive Tables Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Volume I: Comprehensive Tables. ST/ESA/SER.A/379.

Volume II: Demographic Profiles Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Volume II: Demographic Profiles. ST/ESA/SER.A/380.

Data Booklet Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Data Booklet. ST/ESA/SER.A/377.

Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014). World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections. ESA/P/WP.235.

Highlights and Advance Tables Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013). World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Highlights and Advance Tables. ESA/P/WP.228.

Volume I: Comprehensive Tables Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013). World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Volume I: Comprehensive Tables. ST/ESA/SER.A/336.

Volume II: Demographic Profiles Citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013). World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Volume II: Demographic Profiles. ST/ESA/SER.A/345.

Raftery, A.E., N. Li, H. Ševčíková, P. Gerland, and G.K. Heilig (2012). "Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 109 (35):13915-13921. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1211452109 [open access]

Raftery, A.E., N. Li, H. Ševčíková, P. Gerland, and G.K. Heilig (2012). "Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries. - Supporting information" Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 109 (35):13915-13921. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1211452109 [open access]

Raftery, A. E., L. Alkema, and P. Gerland (2014). "Bayesian Population Projections for the United Nations." in: Statistical Science, 29(1), 58-68. doi: 10.1214/13-STS419 [open access]

Fosdick, B., and A. Raftery (2014). "Regional probabilistic fertility forecasting by modeling between-country correlations." in: Demographic Research, 30(35), 1011-1034. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2014.30.35 [open access]

Alkema L., A.E. Raftery, P. Gerland, S.J. Clark, F. Pelletier, T. Buettner, and G.K. Heilig (2011). "Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries." in: Demography, 48:815-839. doi: 10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5 [open access]

Alkema L., A.E. Raftery, P. Gerland, S.J. Clark, F. Pelletier, T. Buettner, and G.K. Heilig (2011). Online Resource 1 for "Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries." in: Demography, 48:815-839. doi: 10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5 [open access]

Ševčíková, H., L. Alkema, and A.E. Raftery. (2011). "bayesTFR: An R Package for Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate". in: Journal of Statistical Software, 43(1), 1-29. [open access]

Raftery, A. E., J.L. Chunn, P. Gerland, and H. Ševčíková, H. (2013). "Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries". in: Demography, 50(3), 777-801. doi: 10.1007/s13524-012-0193-x [open access]

Raftery, A.E., N. Lalic, and P. Gerland (2014). "Joint probabilistic projection of female and male life expectancy". in: Demographic Research, 30(27), 795-822. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2014.30.27 [open access]

Godwin, J., and A.E. Raftery (2017). "Bayesian projection of life expectancy accounting for the HIV/AIDS epidemic". in: Demographic Research, vol. 37, No., pp. 1549-1610. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2017.37.48 [open access]

Ševčíková, H., and others (2016). "Age-Specific Mortality and Fertility Rates for Probabilistic Population Projections". In Dynamic Demographic Analysis, edited by Robert Schoen, pp. 285-310. Cham: Springer International Publishing. [open access]

Ševčíková, H., and A.E. Raftery (2016). "bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections". in: Journal of statistical software, vol. 75, No., pp. doi: 10.18637/jss.v075.i05. [open access]

Ševčíková, H., and others (2011). "bayesTFR: An R package for probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate". in: Journal of Statistical Software, vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 1-29. doi: 10.18637/jss.v043.i01. [open access]

White Paper: Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries for the 2010 World Population Prospects. Adrian E. Raftery, Leontine Alkema, Patrick Gerland, Samuel J. Clark, Francois Pelletier, Thomas Buettner, Gerhard Heilig, Nan Li, Hana Ševčíková. (United Nations population Division, Expert Group Meeting on Recent and Future Trends in Fertility, New York, 2-4 December 2009)

A stochastic version of the United Nations World Population Prospects: methodological improvements by using Bayesian fertility and mortality projections. Gerhard K. Heilig, Thomas Buettner, Nan Li, Patrick Gerland, Francois Pelletier, Leontine Alkema, Jennifer Chunn, Hana Ševčíková, Adrian E. Raftery. Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections, Lisbon, 23 April 2010.

Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries. Alkema, L., A.E. Raftery, P. Gerland, S. Clark, F. Pelletier, and T. Buettner. (2010). Center for Statistics and Social Sciences. Seattle, WA: University of Washington. Working Paper no. 97.

Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries. Chunn, J., A.E. Raftery, P. Gerland (2010). Center for Statistics and Social Sciences. Seattle, WA: University of Washington. Working Paper no. 105.

Future population trends found to be highly uncertain in Least Developed Countries. Gerhard K. Heilig, Thomas Buettner, Nan Li, Patrick Gerland, Leontine Alkema, Jennifer Chunn, Adrian E. Raftery. Unpublished manuscript. 16 March 2010.

Li, N., and others (2013). "Extending the Lee-carter method to model the rotation of age patterns of mortality decline for long-term projections". in: Demography, vol. 50, No. 6, pp. 2037-51. doi: 10.1007/s13524-013-0232-2 [open access]

Andreev, K., and others (2013). "Patterns of Mortality Improvement by Level of Life Expectancy at Birth". in: Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, New Orleans, LA.

Modifying the Lee-Carter method to project mortality changes up to 2100. Li, N. and P. Gerland. Population Association of America 2011 Annual Meeting - Washington, DC. Session 125: Formal Demography I: Mathematical Models and Methods.

Disclaimer: This web site contains data tables, figures, maps, analyses and technical notes from the current revision of the World Population Prospects. These documents do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.